Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to Success, Second Edition


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Introduction

Brief Discussion of Book

Second Edition Book Reviews

First Edition Book Reviews

Table of Contents

Contact Information for Co-Distribution and Quantity Discounts


Introduction

The Second Edition of the highly regarded "Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to Success," American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), ISBN 1-56347-383-6, is available (July 15, 2003). The text describes highly effective project risk management practices, not just theory, that can be immediately applied by every level of practitioner from novice to expert. The reader will learn how to perform risk planning, identify and analyze risks, develop and implement risk (response) handling plans, and monitor progress in reducing risks to an acceptable level. The book will help the reader to develop and implement a suitable risk management process on their project, and to evaluate an existing risk management process, identify shortfalls, and develop and implement needed enhancements. The book also includes comprehensive information, not just outlines, to educate the reader on why certain project risk management practices are either beneficial or unhelpful as well as summary information after many of the items to help those in a hurry quickly get to the "bottom line."

The second edition presents more than 700 project risk management tips to succeed and traps to avoid, including numerous lessons learned derived from 20+ years work performed on Air Force, Army, Navy, DoD, NASA, commercial, and other programs that feature hardware-intensive, software-intensive, and mixed projects. Many of the tips and traps are unique to this book and not available anywhere else. Multiple approaches are provided in numerous places to permit the reader to "pick and choose" the approach best suited for their project. Examples are also provided to help the reader better understand and immediately apply the material to their project.

The second edition includes 450+ new tips to succeed and traps to avoid, a "roadmap" guide to the book and expanded table of contents (11+ pages) and index to enhance access to important information. Key material includes:

·         An introductory chapter on risk management and its implementation, plus individual chapters on the overall risk management process as well as each risk management process step.

·         An extensive and unique discussion by renowned risk management author and consultant Dr. Robert N. Charette on risk and opportunity.

·         A discussion of risk categories and other facets of project risk management that cut across more than one process step.

·         Detailed information on human and organizational behavioral considerations for more efficient project risk management implementation.

·         Guidance on how to develop a risk management plan (risk planning).

·         A presentation of six different risk identification approaches--the WBS approach being only one of six--plus additional tools and techniques for risk identification.

·         The most extensive discussion anywhere on how to develop, implement, and evaluate scales used in risk analysis.

·         A unique and detailed presentation of probability levels and distribution characteristics associated with 50+ assessment words (e.g., high, medium, low) based upon a comprehensive survey and statistical analysis.

·         A comprehensive discussion on the use of risk mapping matrices used to convert probability and consequence values into risk levels.

·         Information for developing and implementing Monte Carlo simulations.

·         A discussion of risk response (handling) approaches and a unique method that helps to select and implement the best approach for each risk.

·         Guidelines for risk monitoring.


American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.  To order the Second Edition of the book directly from the publisher, please visit the following link to the AIAA on-line bookstore:

AIAA Bookstore Location for Effective Risk Management:  Some Keys to Success, Second Edition, 2003

Note: AIAA members receive a 24% discount by ordering this book through AIAA ($64.95 vs. $84.95). If the above AIAA link no longer works, go directly to the AIAA on-line store, (http://store.aiaa.org), enter Effective Risk Management in the Search box near the top of the page (do not use quotes around the words), click GO!, then click on the returned title (which is a hyperlink to the book page). This will allow you to directly browse a summary of the book and place an on-line order.


This book is also available from a number of other quality on-line book sellers.  Several, but not all, of these resources and their links for purchasing the book are listed below:


Amazon.com
, (with a "5 Star" review). The following link will take you to the Amazon.com posting location for the Second Edition.

Amazon.com Location for Effective Risk Management:  Some Keys to Success, Second Edition, 2003


Borders.com, which is teamed with Amazon.com.  The following link will take you to the Amazon.com posting location through Borders.com for the Second Edition.

Borders.com and Amazon.com Location for Effective Risk Management:  Some Keys to Success, Second Edition, 2003


Barns&Noble.com. The following link will take you to the Barnes&Noble.com posting location for the Second Edition.

Barns&Noble.com Location for Effective Risk Management:  Some Keys to Success, Second Edition, 2003


BooksAMillion.com. The following link will take you to the BooksAMillion.com posting location for the Second Edition.

BooksAMillion.com Location for Effective Risk Management:  Some Keys to Success, Second Edition, 2003


Alibris.com™.  The following link will take you to the Alibris.com ™ posting location for the Second Edition.  (Note:  if you order from Alibris.com ™ be sure that you order the 2003 (date published) Second Edition, not the 2000 (date published) First Edition since both editions may be listed on the same web page.)

Albris.com Location for Effective Risk Management:  Some Keys to Success



If you have any questions about identifying the 2003 date published Second Edition of the book (552 pp.), a JPG image of the front book cover is given in the link below.

Second Edition Conrow Book Cover.jpg

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Brief Discussion of the Second Edition (From AIAA Catalog and Web Site)

Risk management is an important project management and systems engineering skill that can be applied to a wide variety of projects. This is particularly important in an era of downsizing, consolidation, shrinking budgets, increasing technological sophistication, and shorter development times.

The text describes practices that can be used by both project management and technical practitioners including those who are unfamiliar with risk management. The reader will learn to perform risk planning, identify and analyze risks, develop and implement risk handling plans, and monitor progress in reducing risks to an acceptable level. The book will help the reader to develop and implement a suitable risk management process and to evaluate an existing risk management process, identify shortfalls, and develop and implement needed enhancements.

The second edition presents more than 700 risk management tips to succeed and traps to avoid, including numerous lessons learned derived from work performed on Air Force, Army, Navy, DoD, NASA, commercial and other programs that feature hardware-intensive and software-intensive projects. The second edition includes a "roadmap" guide and expanded table of contents and index to enhance access to key information. A new appendix written by renowned risk management consultant and author Dr. Robert N. Charette addresses whether or not the definition of risk should include opportunity.


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Second Edition Book Reviews


"Ed Conrow has done it again! His new second edition is by far the best risk management book in the market place--comprehensive, easy to read, understandable, and loaded with tips that make it a must for everyone's bookshelf."

Dr. Harold Kerzner

President, Project Management Associates, Inc., and Professor of Systems Management, Baldwin-Wallace College

Over 200,000 professionals have attended Professor Kerzner's lectures on project management. He is the author of the best-selling book, "Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling," currently in its Tenth Edition (2009).


Partial review from the September 2004 Project Management Institute Project Management Journal, Vol. 35, No. 3, pg. 62 (Excerpt).

"Edmund Conrow's Effective Risk Management, Second Edition is a highly original work. As you read it you have a strong sense that the author really knows what he is talking about…Overall, however, the book is thoughtful and filled with insights that you will not encounter in many risk management texts."

Dr. J. Davidson Frame, PMP


Complete review from the January 2004 International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) journal INSIGHT, Vol. VI, Issue 2, pg. 44.

"Should You Buy It?" (Excerpt)

This book is an advanced, journeyman’s reference on risk management (RM), and will be useful to anyone with major RM responsibilities. If you (are) extensively involved with RM, or if you aspire to become the program or company expert on RM, get this book."

The extensive and highly favorable review is Copyrighted © 2004 by INCOSE, and the complete review us available here as a PDF file to view, print, download, and distribute (with special permission from INCOSE):

Conrow_Review_INCOSE_INSIGHT_January_2004_Distribute.pdf


"This is a very comprehensive and detailed volume. The first two chapters are a good introduction but a little basic for the typical reader. The rest of the book is extremely useful and detailed. This second edition contains a new appendix written by another well known risk management consultant and authority, Dr. Robert N. Charette, on the role of opportunity in the definition of risk. This book is essential for individuals doing project management work, especially on DoD projects, to include the preparation of the proposal in response to the RFP to win the work."

John Richards, Principal Member of the Technical Staff, SRA International

American Society for Quality, On-Line Resource Reviews, 7-2, Excerpt

To view the full, highly favorable review, please visit:

American Society for Quality Review of Conrow Risk Management Book

then go to pg. 7 of the 10 page PDF file that is opened (review of Conrow book is on pp. 7-8).


"At last – a reference with all the practical tools for a project or program manager to perform the full range of risk management! Written in simple-to-understand, common- sense language, but conveying powerful and sophisticated risk concepts, Conrow is again dead center on target with this second edition."

Bill Bahnmaier, Colonel, USMC (Ret)

Former Program Manager, Marine Corps Assault Amphibian Program and recent Professor, Defense Acquisition University


"The greatly expanded content and added usability features have transformed the 2nd Edition into an advanced risk management handbook that will be a repeatedly useful, must have resource for any large, complex program."

Dr. Lawrence D. Pohlman

Strategics Consulting


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First Edition Book Reviews


"Finally, there exists a risk management book on the marketplace that is easy to read, practical, and comprehensive. All facets of risk management are covered without the use of complex mathematics. Dr. Conrow’s lessons learned situations and his more than 250 tips for successful risk management are applicable to any project in any industry. Given that risk management is regarded as one of the primary management skills for the first decade of the 21st century, this book is a must for every manager’s library."

Dr. Harold Kerzner

Professor of Systems Management, Baldwin-Wallace College

Over 200,000 professionals have attended Professor Kerzner's lectures on project management. He is the author of the best-selling book, "Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling," currently in its Ninth Edition (2006).


"If you are directly involved with risk management (RM) planning and/or implementation on a large, complex (government or commercial) system program, this book will help. If you are involved with RM process definition and improvement, this book will help. If you aspire to become the company expert in RM, get this book."…"Conrow’s breadth and depth of RM treatment are extensive. This book is easily a journeyman’s reference on RM – and will be useful to anyone with major RM responsibilities."

Dr. Lawrence D. Pohlman

Strategics Consulting. Written for the October 2001 issue of INCOSE (International Council on Systems Engineering) Insight, Vol. 4, Issue 3, pp. 49-50.


"Dr. Conrow's experiences are palpable as he explains every nuance of the risk management process. Program Managers would be well advised to read, mark, learn, inwardly digest, then apply his lessons learned so that they may minimize the risks to their own careers."

Dr. Gordon A. Smith

Former Deputy Director, Strategic Defense Initiative Organization. Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence

Dr. Smith has also held executive management positions with several commercial companies.


"Dr. Conrow has given the risk management community a much needed reference. In his thoughtful work, he accurately describes the Office of the Secretary of Defense's approach to risk management and offers some processes and methods for implementing it. In creating this bridge between policy and practice, he tells us what we must do to have an effective risk management program and, just as important, tells us the pitfalls to avoid. This book is a necessary reference for all managers."

Louis L. Simpleman,

Institute for Defense Analyses

Mr. Simpleman is the Technical Leader of the Office of the Secretary of Defense Risk Management Working Group


"I think it is well written, comprehensive, and addresses many of the major problems that are found in applying risk management in practice. It is one of the best books regarding risk management I have read in the past 5 years. It is a noteworthy addition to the risk management literature, and is useful to those who want to do risk management right. I will be citing it in my future books and articles."

Dr. Robert Charette

Dr. Charette is a highly respected risk management consultant. He has also authored two books and numerous articles and presentations on risk management


"A comprehensive guide to the field, the book is not a cookbook for risk management and even much less a cure for all project deficiencies. Almost every consideration and recommendation of it must be tailored to a specific project or program. In addition, the knowledge base documented by Conrow has to be coupled with the desire to learn and practical experience to yield the wisdom of how to implement risk management to the project, recognize problems and take decisive actions to resolve them. The volume is highly recommended to all those interested in the area of risk management and/or responsible for successful project implementation and evading crisis."

Boris Porfiriev

Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Vol. 11, Issue 4, pg. 185, December 2003, Excerpt

To view the full, highly favorable review, please visit:

Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management Review of Conrow Risk Management Book


"Overall this is one of the best books on risk management that I own because it goes into deep detail and coves advanced topics. It also is practical instead of theoretical, which sets it apart from most risk management books. "

Mike Tarrani

Amazon.com on-line review, 4 May 2002, Excerpt

To view the full, highly favorable review, please visit:

Amazon.com Review of Conrow Risk Management Book


"Practitioners, including both project management personnel and technical analysts will find that the material illustrates sound risk management attributes

and practices. Non-practitioners will find information they can use to do an initial diagnosis of some aspects of risk management process prior to bringing a more knowledgeable person into the program."

Risk Management Specific Interest Group

Risk Management Newsletter, Risk Management Specific Interest Group, Project Management Institute, Vol. 1, No. 4, pg. 3, December 1999, Excerpt

To view the full, highly favorable review, please visit:

Risk SIG Review of Conrow Risk Management Book

then go to pg. 3 of the 9 page PDF file that is opened (review of Conrow book is on pg. 3).


"Dr. Conrow's book lays out a well-defined and logical risk management process which should be adopted as the standard for all industrial sectors. Each step is clearly described and includes a number of examples. The author does not stop at presenting the mechanics of risk management-he also covers the need for organizational culture changes that call for both top-down (program manager to "trenches") and bottom-up ("trenches" to program manager) involvement in the process. The book also includes an excellent presentation on the pitfalls of performing risk assessments using mathematical operations on results derived from ordinal probability and consequence scales to achieve risk rating scores. But the author does not just leave you 'twisting slowly in the wind' on this subject; he provides simple yet effective methods of assessing risk that are practical and theoretically sound."

A former DoD major defense system program manager


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Table of Contents

Preface
Acknowledgements
Chapter 1--Introduction and Need for Risk Management
Chapter 2--Risk Management Overview
Chapter 3--Some Risk Management Implementation Considerations
Chapter 4--Some Risk Planning Considerations
Chapter 5--Some Risk Identification Considerations
Chapter 6--Some Risk Analysis Considerations
Chapter 7--Some Risk Handling Considerations
Chapter 8--Some Risk Monitoring Considerations
Appendix A--A Comparison of Risk Management for Commercial and Defense Programs
Appendix B--DoD Program Phases and Milestones
Appendix C--Comparison of the Microeconomic Framework to Actual DoD Program Outcomes
Appendix D--Some Characteristics of the Cost-Performance Slice of the Technical Possibility Surface
Appendix E-- Changing the Definition of Risk — Why Risk It? (by Dr. Robert N. Charette)
Appendix F--Program Structure Models
Appendix G--Sample Language for Including Risk Management in an RFP and Evaluating It During Source Selection
Appendix H--Some Characteristics and Limitations of Ordinal Scales in Risk Analysis
Appendix I--Estimative Probability Values for Subjective Probability Statements
Appendix J--Development of Ordinal Probability Scales from Cardinal Data

Typeset page length is 552 pages (including front material)

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Contact Information for Co-Distribution and Quantity Discounts

Dr. Conrow's book is published with permission by AIAA. Please contact Ms. Zuhur Abdi of AIAA for information on co-distribution and quantity pricing discounts.

Ms. Zuhur Abdi
AIAA Publications Development
1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500
Reston, VA 20191-4344
(703) 264-7505
zuhura@aiaa.org


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Links to Project Risk Management Services

Home Page

How We Can Help

Overview of Services

Why Risk Management?

Why Do It Well?

Papers and Presentations

Some Client Profiles

Synopsis of Experience

Risk Management Training

About Dr. Edmund H. Conrow

Code of Ethics

Risk Management Links

Second Edition of Dr. Conrow's Risk Management Book with Reviews

Risk Management e-Interview with International Council on Systems Engineering

Links to Other Services

Additional Services

Synopsis of Additional Experience

Additional Papers and Presentations

 


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P. O. Box 1125
Redondo Beach, CA 90278


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